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Palm Beach brokers predicting strong real estate season


Daily News Business and Real Estate Writer

Sunday, October 14, 2007

The season ahead bodes reasonably well for real estate sales, say Palm Beach brokers who have weathered enough autumns to remember the booms of 2000 and 2005, and the fitful pace ever since.

Right on time, after the perennial lull of September, there is a new vibe in the air that has triggered optimism.

"There is an energy in the office that I hadn't felt in a couple of weeks. People were bringing in offers and writing contracts," said Ava Van De Water, executive vice president and broker for Brown Harris Stevens. In Washington, D.C., Thursday to attend a conference with other Christie's affiliates, she said her colleagues nationwide concurred.

"September was the first month we were slow. But September and October always are," she said.

Many brokers spoke of a dry summer.

"It was a quieter summer than I've seen in some time," said broker Linda Gary. "But I'm expecting a good season, because of clients coming into town. And a lot of European visitors."

Not everyone agreed on a quiet summer or a soft year.

Broker Lawrence Moens said the summer and the year were "good ... and I'm anticipating quality properties will sell very well this coming season. People are looking. I expect they'll be purchasing homes."

Two years ago, Palm Beach could expect properties to be under contract a day and a half after going on the market, Van De Water said. Last year, things were more uneven.

This year, "Reality set in. It's not that prices are falling, they're just not going up as fast," she said. "Now, we're back to steady-as-she-goes. This town is a true luxury market. Palm Beach is doing well."

Broker Jeffrey Cloninger also noticed a new pulse at the end of last month.

"In recent weeks, I'm seeing buyers who seem prepared to enter the season with a fervor. I've seen a lot more activity in the last two weeks than all summer. I had an extremely slow summer, and an extremely busy early fall."

It's illogical to experience a stock market above 14,000 with "stagnant" real estate, leading Cloninger to wonder if the market is "artificially suppressed. So it's a good time to buy. I haven't seen a better time to be a buyer in 15 years."

Median prices continue to go up, even with a flat sales pace, he added.

"The indicators are, we are headed into a strong season, and I'm very excited about it," Cloninger said. He referred to "some exciting sales opportunities that no one has touched. So for the person who said in '99, 'I should have bought two years ago,' this is your year. I think fall 2007 will be remembered as an opportune time to have bought."

Van de Water emphasized a new milestone this year in town, when the average price of a Palm Beach house moved above $5 million, a 14 percent increase from $4.5 million in 2006.

"Sales were up, and days on the market were down," she said. Houses on the island sold "generally within 85 to 90 percent of the asking price."

Brown Harris Stevens even had a "hot" summer, with higher sales volume in June and July than the peak months of February and March, she added.

Broker Rosalind Clarke of The Corcoran Group is putting even money on a relatively good season.

"I think there's a very good chance some pent-up buyers are waiting for the season. I've seen people flying down to buy quickly, to be in before season starts," Clarke said.

When buyers realize that Palm Beachers "are not giving away their properties, and that they'll have to pay for them, they just do it," Clarke said. "I tell them, 'You don't want to invest in an area that is subject to market swings.' And that is one thing that Palm Beach hasn't been."

Clarke said she does not expect a return to the phenomenal pace of 2005, but Palm Beach prices will hold.

"I haven't seen any figures that aren't appreciating at the rate that we are used to. Yes, there are markedly fewer sales, but good prices. How the next six months will shape up, it's hard to say. Will people who put off buying, buy? I'm not sure anyone knows. One frustration to us is the media, always preaching doom and gloom; unfortunately, it's contagious."

Broker Earl Hollis, who is considered the dean of the island market, with more than half a century in business, said Palm Beach is "very lucky. There is still a lot happening. People are still looking for expensive things. Now, we're seeing new traffic. People are showing up."

With "only one Palm Beach," there may be fewer sales, but they are solid, Hollis said, predicting "a good season."

Business at Barclays International Realty is up by 14 percent over last year, said owner Shirley Wyner, who anticipates solid sales ahead, based on luxury markets elsewhere.

She said Palm Beach's seasonal marketplace is aligned with buyers "who are primarily from New York, who have just ended a very strong summer buying season in the Hamptons, Nantucket, Aspen and other upscale areas. Their properties in Manhattan are continuing to achieve stellar prices. So it only makes sense that they will continue to migrate to Palm Beach, as before."

According to The Corcoran Group, sales during 2007 in Palm Beach largely confirm brokers' perceptions:

* Single-family homes: average sale price up 12 percent, average median price down 2 percent.

* Condominiums: average sale price up 14 percent, average median price up 5 percent.

* Townhomes: average sale price up 9 percent, average median price up 8 percent.

"Things are not crashing, or even near the threat of that. It's just a more stable market," Van de Water said. "It's a good time to buy."

SOLD! High-end sales this year and the deal-makers:

April: 101 El Bravo Way: Developer Dan Swanson paid $16.5 million and demolished a 1993 estate to build a new mansion on speculation.

June: 1275 S. Ocean Blvd.: Listed for $28 million, a spec mansion by Swanson closed for an undisclosed price. Cris Condon of Sotheby's International Realty represented the buyer.

June: 343 El Bravo Way: The landmarked home of the late Curt Gowdy closed for $18.5 million. Designed by John Volk and Gustav Maass, it was listed with Carol Digges of Brown Harris Stevens. Broker Lawrence Moens represented the buyer.

August: 1220 S. Ocean Blvd. (formerly a Via Pelicano address): Swanson paid $20.8 million for about 2 acres of vacant land. Moens handled both sides of the unlisted deal. The seller had paid $16.69 million in spring 2006.

September: 1075 N. Ocean Blvd.: A spec mansion built by Paul Wittman closed for $23 million. Condon represented the buyer.



 

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